Abstract
The crisis
opportunity model is demonstrated by the Sandy Hook school shooting, which was
a crisis that advocates sought to leverage to spur additional gun control
legislation. This study explores the
relationship between the Sandy Hook mass shooting, its media coverage, between
media coverage, and public opinion regarding gun control. The study explores the duration in which
people were actively information-seeking to fulfill their need for orientation,
including information-seeking of previous shootings. This study resulted in three original
contributions to the communication field.
It was determined that there is a relationship between information-seeking
of previous shootings, information-seeking of the Sandy Hook school shooting and
support for gun control. Additionally,
it was determined that information-seeking peaked immediately after the event
with sustaining intensity for about two weeks, then drastically reduced to
pre-crisis levels. Therefore, the study
culminates by presenting a new model incorporating the various theories, called
the crisis opportunity model.
Keywords:
crisis opportunity model, framing, shootings, agenda-setting, crisis
opportunities, media effects
Introduction
The
crisis opportunity model is a unified graphical depiction of the convergence of
crisis communication, media effects, and uncertainty theories in this study.
The bottom portion represents the effect of uncertainty and how it drives
information-seeking behaviors triggered by the crisis. The top portion represents the media effects
and the historical effects of prior crises, known in media effects as
priming. The primed events become a
pattern to which future events will be compared. When an event occurs, people may think to
themselves “I have seen this before.”
The opportunity is the convergence of media coverage and people’s
information-seeking behaviors in time and place, finding the information they
are looking for, when and where they are looking for it.
Figure 1: Crisis Opportunity Model
Information-seeking provides the path to change, while
the media represents what people find along that path. Event-related information-seeking correlated
with support for gun control, and the media attention and coverage correlated
with those information-seeking events.
This model also aids in explaining Tucson, how leveraging a prior event
outside of the optimal time of information-seeking is ineffective as
information-seeking and media coverage do not converge in time, and therefore,
opportunity was lost. One element in the
model that is not specifically supported in the findings is the aspect of frame
acceptance and socialization. To achieve
this, horizontal media would have to be analyzed and this was outside the scope
of this study but warrants further study.
This study into the Sandy Hook school shooting supports the belief that
a crisis provides an opportunity for social changes and traces a crisis from
the event through changes in policy support.
First,
this study sought to define the duration during which people face uncertainty
following a crisis, specifically a school shooting. No previous studies identified the duration
of information-seeking following a crisis.
The uncertainty drives information-seeking behaviour; research reveals
that the height of information-seeking occurs in the first two weeks and then
drastically tapers off, nearly returning to normal in 30 days. These findings are similar to what Uecker
(2011) found with increased church attendance following September 11, 2001, as
people were attempting to make sense of the terrorist attack, though not
specifically through information-seeking.
The information-seeking behaviors are
important not only to uncertainty communication but also for media effects. In
addition to identifying the duration of information-seeking specific to the
Sandy Hook crisis, this study uncovered information-seeking of prior events
spurred by the crisis and potentially the role of the media in activating
memory tags of prior events. This was
the second original contribution to the communication field. While previous research discussed the role of
memory tags, this study added to those findings by discovering active
information seeking of those prior events to fulfill the need for orientation.
This study resulted in a holistic
model unifying numerous theories in understanding how a crisis can be leveraged
for change; considered as the third original contribution to the communication
field. There may be a window of
opportunity to leverage people’s information-seeking to fulfill their need for
orientation. Tucson may represent an
attempt to connect crises after the window of opportunity and failed to spur
information-seeking of that prior event regardless of the media coverage. The media began covering Tucson after many
people already processed the Sandy Hook shooting and what it meant to
them. With the ability to monitor
real-time information-seeking on Google Trends and socialization of the crisis
on social media, special interests can monitor the effectiveness of issue and
issue attribute coverage, leveraging data to aid the population in making sense
of the world around them. Such poses
ethical challenges and certain responsibilities for the media, the government,
and social structures.
Since this was a single case study,
the implications may provide theoretical propositions but do not necessarily extend
beyond this case study. In future studies, it would be important to expand the
research of other shooting crises, such as the four previous shootings from
this case study, to build upon the findings.
The previous shootings may have aided the public in making judgments
about the Sandy Hook shooting, and comprehensive research and analysis of those
events may yield important insights. Another
limitation of the study was that it included only four vertical media outlets.
Additional media outlets, including horizontal media, could yield even more
insights. While the study included major
news outlets, it was not inclusive of horizontal media, more personalized media
that reflect people’s social network.
Information is a social process and people’s networks aid in emotionally
and cognitively processing the information.
People participate in the process on Twitter, Facebook, and a multitude
of other sources. Future research should
analyze these other information sources that fall outside of the traditional
media, which was the scope of this study.
Even with carefully selected traditional media outlets, it is not
representative of all news sources available.
The crisis opportunity model can be used to
detect the manifestation of crises before they happen. The adoption of such a model is necessary as
it sets the pace for defensive mechanisms that can be used to quell issues
before they are experienced. Although the model is one of the stances that can
be used to improve the state of affairs in any given institution or state, it
cannot be effective. Some of the dominant laws and rules that are applicable in
the United States have rendered the model ineffective. For instance, the law in
gun rights has made it impossible for culprits that quell such stances to be
apprehended. The issue of gun rights in the United States has increased in
prominence over recent years, especially following mass shootings. The Democratic Party generally focuses on one
aspect of the gun debate, gun control, while the Republican Party focuses on
gun rights. Gun control was once a taboo
issue for the Democratic Party but now is a central political issue as a result
of the increase in issue salience. Gun
control includes measures such as increasing bans, magazine capacity
limitations, weapon registration, background checks, assault weapon bans, and
increasing waiting periods for gun sales.
The
crisis opportunity model emphasizes the need to identify the stances that
propagate the manifestation of crises in different situations. A crisis is
important to this study as it is the focusing event that brings attention to
issues and can become an integral force in the political and social factions
(Birkland, 1968; Sellnow & Seeger, 2013).
Perry (2007) generally identifies a crisis as “some breakdown in a
system that creates shared stress” (p. 17).
Coombs (2007) describes a crisis as the change and adjustments that are
anticipated in the case of some random violation of the existing policies and
stances. Sellnow, Seeger, and Ulmer (2003) define a crisis as a specific,
unexpected, non-routine event or series of events that can create high levels
of uncertainty and a significant or perceived threat to high priority
goals. While numerous definitions exist,
the definition by Seeger, Sellnow, and Ulmer (2015) represents the meaning for
the role of the study. The
crisis can then serve as a focusing event.
To
effectively understand the crisis opportunity model, one can use mass shooting
as a focusing event. A focusing event may
spur a need for orientation, whereby people seek information to understand
unfolding events and the cause of the crisis.
It is the desirability for effective orientation as one contingent and
effective factor for agenda-setting effects by causing the population to seek
information to reduce uncertainty (Camaj, 2014). People with the requirement for desirable
orientation are likely to face stances where they are sufficiently exposed to
the media, would end up adapting to media (Camaj, 2014; Matthes, 2008; Weaver,
1977). People
select their information source to satisfy their information need based on
beliefs relevant to the issue and their predispositions (Camaj, 2014; Mutz
& Martin, 2001; Zillmann & Bryant, 1985). The media selected have the opportunity to
begin agenda building, priming and setting through their framing efforts. Agenda building is the initial step in
developing a recognized issue. Priming
includes the ideas that have been left in the memory of the public that will
guide future information processing.
Agenda setting refers to the transference of what issues are important
in the media’s agenda to the public.
Framing
is one of the ways in which the crisis opportunity model can be estimated and
evaluated. It refers to how a story is structured and organized in such a way
that it tells us how to understand an issue and information (Coombs,
2007). The
policy goals or social change framed within the story connects the crisis with
the desired goal or solution (Coombs, 2007; Wolfe, Jones, & Baumgartner,
2013). As new selected information is
available, people can reframe an issue since it joins existing knowledge,
providing deeper understanding (Brashers, 2001; Hale, Dulek, & Hale,
2005). The framing of new information
may lead people to interpret an issue or event through a different lens,
changing their previous opinion or belief.
A crisis raises issue salience with a
population, but how long does it cause a need for orientation? The Democratic Party and President Barack
Obama sought to capitalize on issue salience following mass shootings,
regardless of whether at a school, theatre, or after a terrorist attack. Mass shooting crises serve as a focusing
event, but how long does the population focus on the issue and seek
orientation? What is the relationship of
a need for orientation, use of Internet search engines, changes in public
opinion on issue attributes, and public policy support? Understanding such relationships provides a
greater understanding of agenda-melding specific to mass shootings.
The study
on the crisis opportunity model will identify the relationship between media
coverage, people’s information seeking, changes in public opinion regarding
issue attributes, and policy support following the Sandy Hook mass
shooting. The significance of the study
is to understand further how crises can be leveraged to bring about social
change, and it begins with understanding how people’s need for orientation may
heighten their susceptibility to framing by the media and issue advocates. The stage in which people have a need for
orientation may lead to the first exposure to information (Chernov, Valenzuela,
& McCombs, 2011). The orientation from first exposure may influence all
future information processing on an issue, a significant advantage toward the
represented issue advocate’s perspective.
Horizontal media is an under-researched area but is necessary as
individuals are increasingly free to choose their own agendas via the internet.
Consequently, fewer people pay regular attention to newspapers and TV news; hence
this traditional function of media agenda setting seems likely to decline
(Weaver, Wojdynski, Mckeever, & Shaw, 2010, p. 3).
Literature Review
The
crisis opportunity model presupposes that events happen and manifest as
prompted by the societal concerns that characterize the given place or region. A crisis and uncertainty are linked,
but before their additional theories are explored, definitions of both are
necessary. According to the definition
by Sellnow, Seeger, and Ulmer (2003), a crisis creates high levels of
uncertainty and a significant or perceived threat to high priority goals. Therefore, when people believe there is a
crisis, they are likely to behave differently than they would in normal
situations (Sellnow et al., p. 5). Crises
come in many forms such as a natural disaster, a human-made disaster, terrorist
attack, organizational crisis, and economic crisis among others. The type of crises may help determine the
level of uncertainty and the population facing uncertainty. This study looks at a human-made crisis, a
school shooting. A crisis changes behavior,
and uncertainty theories can describe the behavior. The more people experience high levels of
uncertainty caused by a crisis, the more people are potentially seeking
information and are susceptible to agenda-setting and framing efforts
proceeding from the focusing event to bring about political change.
To
perfectly understand the operationalization of the crisis opportunity model, it
is necessary to make due regards and reference to the manifestation of stances
of uncertainty. Berger and Bradac (1982) identified two types of uncertainty
within the uncertainty reduction theory: cognitive and behavioral uncertainties. Cognitive uncertainties are the questions
that people encounter about their beliefs (Knobloch & McAninch, 2014, p.
298). Behavioral uncertainties are the
questions people face about their actions.
Both types of uncertainty can occur simultaneously but not necessarily
equally, depending on whether the uncertainty questions beliefs, actions or
both. For example, during and shortly
after a mass shooting such as the Sandy Hook incident, people may face more
behavioral uncertainty, unsure about what actions they should take. As people take actions to reduce uncertainty,
it allows them to focus on cognitively and emotionally processing the
event. People attempt to make sense of
the mass shooting relative to their beliefs.
The problematic integration theory
identified two meanings of uncertainty: epistemological and ontological
(Babrow, 2001). Ontological uncertainty refers
to the state of being unclear about the nature of the world, concerning the causes
and consequences of events (Knobloch & McAninch, 2014, p. 302). On the other hand, epistemological
uncertainty entails questions about the nature of information like the
sufficiency, reliability, credibility and structure of knowledge (Knobloch
& McAninch, 2014, p. 302). The two
uncertainty types, when applied to the context of a mass shooting, begin with a
heavier focus on ontological uncertainty.
However, cognitive processing of information causes the balance to shift
toward epistemological uncertainty since people interpret available information
based on how they construct reality. Consequently,
both are “interrelated and interconnected in people’s experiences” and a part
of a person’s sense-making (Knobloch & McAninch, 2014, p. 302). The theory of Problematic Integration explores
human nature and their desire to understand social circumstances. Often, people apply knowledge and value
judgments in the deriving of meaning, which addresses both behavioral and
cognitive uncertainty.
The present study employed a single case study approach leveraging mixed methods involving examination of historical polling data, Google Trends data, and traditional news reporting following a mass shooting. Historical polling data from respective polling companies provides insight into the public’s issue attribute salience on matters surrounding the Sandy Hook school shooting, gun control, and gun rights. Google Trends provides insights into Google search intensities representing the public’s active information-seeking. Traditional news reports on the Sandy Hook mass shooting provide insight into how the media reports interpreted the crisis and issue attribute salience for the population. Each type of data analyzed individually and with the other variables for a period following the crisis provides insight regarding the relationship of the public’s information seeking, media reporting, and public opinion on issue attributes, providing an opportunity to analyze these data to answer the research questions.
The present study employed a single case study approach leveraging mixed methods involving examination of historical polling data, Google Trends data, and traditional news reporting following a mass shooting. Historical polling data from respective polling companies provides insight into the public’s issue attribute salience on matters surrounding the Sandy Hook school shooting, gun control, and gun rights. Google Trends provides insights into Google search intensities representing the public’s active information-seeking. Traditional news reports on the Sandy Hook mass shooting provide insight into how the media reports interpreted the crisis and issue attribute salience for the population. Each type of data analyzed individually and with the other variables for a period following the crisis provides insight regarding the relationship of the public’s information seeking, media reporting, and public opinion on issue attributes, providing an opportunity to analyze these data to answer the research questions.
The crisis opportunity model
presupposes that once a crisis has been detected, it can be quelled with
effectiveness. The Yin (2009) explained that a single case study approach is
beneficial if the desire is to understand a complex social phenomenon of a real-life
event traced over time. This study
sought to understand the potential agenda-setting effects after the Newtown,
Connecticut, school shooting. This study
was designed to explore the phenomenon in depth by incorporating multiple forms
of data with a need for triangulation (Yin, 2009). The timeline provided an opportunity to
observe converging lines of inquiry consistent with theoretically guided
propositions to understand the impacts of a crisis on a population, impacts of
media effects, and the role these have on public opinion. The ability to trace change over time is a
major benefit of a case study (Yin, 2009).
The case study approach is explanatory and exploratory, which may
identify correlations over time (Yin, 2009).
A single case study was selected, as the research was testing the
relationship of well-established theories within a defined period. As part of the case study, statistical
analysis was employed to answer the research questions. This was accomplished by developing an
intensive timeline incorporating all four elements of data collected to
determine correlations in the unfolding events following the Newtown school
shooting between people’s need for orientation, issue attribute salience, and
Media attention included the frequency
of media articles published regardless of issue attribute, which was also a
variable within the Scheufele (2000) study.
The correlation test explored whether relationships existed between the
variables. Additional testing of
relationships was needed, including multiple regressions, to determine if a
variable predicted the outcome of support for gun control. The public’s information-seeking used Google
Trends data, with each week providing a data point. The public support for policy action leveraged
polling on legislative actions and polls on gun control generally. The polls were averaged and reported with a
single percentile as the data point for the week. In answering RQ1, that more media attention
and increased public information-seeking would be related to support for gun control,
the relationship was explored by conducting correlations. The robustness of the relationship amid the
working independent variables was indicated by the fact that the dependent
variable happened to be reflected in the existing r value, in such a case, 7 outlining a strong working relationship
and .25 highlighting a weak relationship.
As significant relationships were found across the three variables, a
multiple regression was done in the effective interest and desirability of
getting to terms with the accurate highlights that denote the existing working
relationship.
Methodology
and Research Design
Introduction
In
this section, the source of data and its reliability will be discussed. Besides,
the target population, representative sample and the model will form part of
the main subject of the research. Various data analysis techniques
were used to analyze the data.
Research design
This research used a case study approach in which
historical polling data, Google Trends data, and traditional news reporting
following a mass shooting were examined.
The Sandy Hook case study was used to illustrate the outcomes of the
present study such that it was possible to come up with working inferences and
viewpoints on the point in issue.
Information-seeking scaled data from Google Trends were collected, with
each week serving as a data point for Sandy Hook and four previous mass
shootings at Aurora, Columbine, Tucson, and Virginia Tech. The Aurora shooting occurred six months before
the Sandy Hook shooting on July 20th, 2012. The Virginia Tech shooting occurred on April
16th, 2007. The third
shooting occurred less than a year before Sandy Hook in Tucson, Arizona, where
Arizona Congressional Representative Gabby Giffords was shot. The fourth shooting was the Columbine High
School shooting that occurred on April 20th, 1999, nearly 13 years before
Sandy Hook.
Even
though the case study can be used to build theoretical propositions, the
research design and findings do not extend beyond the case study. A timeframe was used to identify the period
in which people have a need for orientation following a crisis while monitoring
traditional media, polling, and Google Trends for correlations. One hundred days was the study’s timeframe.
The data was validated through corroboration with other sources like
peer-reviewed journals whose authors are people of no mean repute. Besides, reports
that were used were mainly from government agencies and thus, the information
was reliable.
Data Sources and
Collection Methods
Data
were retrieved from different sources using keywords for instance, gun control. The main source of data used in the research was news
analysis, polling data and data from various websites. The information has been
used by various scholars and policymakers in different fields and thus
reliable.
Variables
The researcher aimed to determine the relationship between
the Sandy Hook mass shooting, media coverage, and public opinion regarding gun
control. Good trends, polling data and
news reporting are some of the data sources that were used in the research.
Google Trends
Google trends were utilized to explore the intensity
of Google search, a representation of information seeking by the public. News
reports on the Sandy Hook mass shooting provided insight into how the media
reports interpreted the crisis. Each
type of data analyzed individually and with the other variables for a period
following the crisis provided insights in regards to the relationship of the
public’s information seeking, media reporting, and public opinion on mass
shooting.
Polling data
This method was used to determine the acceptance of
the public regarding the issue of mass shooting. The polls provided insights
into what issue attributes the population accepted. The polls are organized in a chronological
manner depending on how events unfolded. The poll percentage and the questions
related to the poll question are included within the timeline. Polls that surveyed similar questions and
issue attributes were averaged.
News reporting
Different news outlets were selected for information
in regards to mass shooting. The media outlets selected include two major cable
news outlets and two major newspaper outlets.
The newspapers selected were the highest in circulation at the time of
the events. The first newspaper on the
list was omitted, as it had the same parent company as one of the cable news
outlets selected, Fox News. The two newspaper outlets selected as the
major source of information were the New
York Times and USA Today. Although
this approach may not be fully representative of all media, it does remove
selection bias. It also provides an
opportunity to trace events or actions post-crisis while monitoring issue
attribute reporting. All relevant
articles that met the search criteria of the date range and search string were
included in the database and coded, except blogs.
Data analysis
The data collected from Google Trends
were correlated to determine if significant relationships existed between
information-seeking of other mass shootings.
The period examined began a week before the crisis when all four search
levels were reported as zero, and the period continued until all three previous
events returned to zero reported Google Trends search level, December 2, 2012,
through February 9, 2013. A correlation
was done to identify the link amid the variables to determine if further
testing was necessary. The correlation
indicated whether the relationship was significant, the direction of the
relationship (positive or negative), and the strength of the relationship. The strength of the relationship was reported
in the correlation coefficient, r
value, with .25 representing a weak relationship and .7 representing a strong
relationship.
The coding included nine separate
issue attributes: background checks, assault weapon ban, ammunition ban,
expanded background checks, mental health checks, and waiting periods for gun
purchase, gun show loopholes, online gun sales, and the Second Amendment. Each article segment was coded for the issue
attributes and then coded whether the article segment included support for,
support against, mixed, or neutral. Each
article’s title and first two paragraphs were coded separately and as separate
data points.
The public’s issue attribute salience
was identified from polling data with polling percentiles as the data
point. Multiple polls in a week were
averaged and reported as a single, averaged data point. To answer the
question on the relationship of information-seeking and the transfer of issue
attributes was determined by conducting correlations of information-seeking
search terms, including Sandy Hook, NRA,
gun rights and gun control; coded
issue attribute media coverage in the articles; and related issue attribute
polling.
Research
Findings
The role
of the study was to explore the crisis opportunity model as illustrated by the use
of spearman correlation, Pearson correlation, and chi-square on the Sandy Hook
school shooting. In the previous
chapters, literature suggested the exploitable vulnerability of the population
following a crisis, especially while people are faced with uncertainty and require
orientation. The media can fulfill the
need for orientation and aid people to make sense of reality, both cognitively
and emotionally. Exploring the timeline
of people’s information-seeking following a crisis may aid in understanding the
time necessary for a population to obtain information, emotionally and
cognitively process that information, and prepare to take or support action. The
findings represent data from 219 articles from four sources: Fox News, CNN, USA Today, and The New York Times. Findings also include the analysis of 20
polls from Rasmussen, Gallup, and Pew, in addition to Google Trends scaled data
for searches of key terms in the United States on Google. The data for this study were queried and
collected for all data types from December 10, 2016, through January 28,
2017. To cut down the propensity for
type 1 error due to the number of comparisons, the findings for correlations will
report results significant at p < .01 with a few exceptions. The composite variables were excluded and three
additional exceptions with significant results reported at p < .05 (see
tables 10, 14, and 17). The three
exceptions were between issue attribute polling and other variables. Without the exceptions, no additional
significant variables were found to explore issue attributes. The composite variables were also exceptions,
providing an expanded opportunity to explore relationships of inter-correlated
variables with other variables.
Table
1
Chi-square analysis. Google
Trends Search Intensity Data on Four Search Terms
|
Week
|
Sandy
Hook
|
Gun
rights
|
Gun
control
|
NRA
|
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
Dec.
9-15
|
100
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
Dec.
16-22
|
91
|
0
|
8
|
13
|
|
Dec.
23-29
|
12
|
0
|
3
|
4
|
|
Dec.
30 – Jan. 5, 2013
|
8
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Jan.
6-12, 2013
|
7
|
0
|
5
|
4
|
|
Jan.
13-19
|
19
|
1
|
10
|
9
|
|
Jan.
20-26
|
8
|
0
|
4
|
3
|
|
Jan.
27 – Feb. 2
|
5
|
0
|
4
|
3
|
|
Feb.
3-9
|
4
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
|
Feb.
10-16
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
|
Feb.
17-23
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Feb.
24 – Mar. 2
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Mar.
3-9
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Mar. 10-16
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Mar. 17-23
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Mar. 24-30
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Mar. 31 – Apr. 6
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Apr. 7-13
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
|
Apr. 14-20
|
9
|
0
|
6
|
2
|
|
Apr. 21-27
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
2
|
|
Apr. 28 – May 4
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
Note.
Search intensity data scaled 0–100, with 100 as highest intensity.
The results of the
information-seeking terms revealed two peaks, one immediately on the December
14, 2012, Sandy Hook school shooting, and declining significantly a week later.
The second peak was identified one month after the incident then declined back
to pre-crisis levels. It appears the
duration is consistent with Uecker’s (2011) study. Uecker found that following September 11, 2001,
people attended churches above historical norms to alleviate the uncertainty that
peaked two weeks following the attack and returned to historical norms within
two months.
Multiple correlations were found
between information-seeking terms. The National Rifle Association, or NRA, had a significant, positive
relationship with two other search terms: Sandy
Hook (r = .63, p < .01), and gun control (r = .83, p < .001). The Sandy
Hook search term only had a significant correlation with the NRA search term. Gun
rights and gun control information-seeking
correlated with a moderately strong, positive relationship (r = .69, p < .001). After
identifying the populations’ information-seeking, news reporting provided insights
to the media coverage.
Table 2
Pearson Correlation
Matrix between News Outlets
|
News
outlet
|
Fox
News
|
|
CNN
|
|
New York Times
|
|||
|
R
|
p
|
R
|
p
|
R
|
P
|
|||
|
CNN
|
.67**
|
.001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
New
York Times
|
.59**
|
.004
|
|
.78***
|
<.001
|
|
|
|
|
USA
Today
|
.50
|
.017
|
|
.73***
|
<.001
|
|
.73***
|
<.001
|
Note.
N = 22.
**p < .01
(2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
Table
4
Data Points for Polling
Issue Attributes by Week
|
Week
|
Support
for gun control
|
For
background checks
|
For
assault weapon ban
|
For
high-capacity magazine ban
|
For
gun rights
|
Mental
health
|
|
Dec. 2-8, 2012
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 9-15
|
47
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 16-22
|
48
|
92
|
55
|
53
|
42
|
84
|
|
Dec. 23-29
|
51
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 30 – Jan. 5, 2013
|
51
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan. 6-12, 2013
|
53
|
86
|
55
|
55
|
45
|
80
|
|
Jan. 13-19
|
52
|
85
|
60
|
|
|
82
|
|
Jan. 20-26
|
|
91
|
|
54
|
|
|
|
Jan. 27 – Feb. 2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb. 3-9
|
50
|
|
55
|
|
|
|
|
Feb. 10-16
|
50
|
83
|
56
|
53
|
50
|
|
|
Feb. 17-23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feb. 24 – Mar. 2
|
52
|
|
58
|
|
|
|
|
Mar. 3-9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mar. 10-16
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mar. 17-23
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mar. 24-30
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mar. 31 – Apr. 6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Apr. 7-13
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Apr. 14-20
|
49
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Apr. 21-27
|
|
78
|
|
|
|
|
|
Apr. 28 – May 4
|
50
|
|
54
|
|
|
|
Table
5
Pearson Correlations
Among Information Seeking, Media Outlet, and Support for Gun Control
|
Variable
|
Fox
News
|
CNN
|
New York Times
|
USA Today
|
Composite
Media Attention
|
Support
gun controla
|
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.28
|
.46
|
.60**
|
.53
|
.51*
|
-.74**
|
|
P
|
.211
|
.031
|
.003
|
.012
|
.015
|
.010
|
|
Gun rights IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.53
|
.20
|
.33
|
.28
|
.41
|
.32
|
|
P
|
.011
|
.379
|
.130
|
.206
|
.060
|
.338
|
|
Gun control IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.68**
|
.68***
|
.80***
|
.54**
|
.79***
|
.00
|
|
P
|
.001
|
<.001
|
<.001
|
.010
|
<.001
|
.991
|
|
NRA IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.72***
|
.83***
|
.89***
|
.82***
|
.93***
|
-.14
|
|
P
|
<.001
|
<.001
|
<.001
|
<.001
|
<.001
|
.675
|
|
Support gun controla
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.22
|
-.02
|
-.34
|
-.20
|
-.05
|
|
|
P
|
.519
|
.956
|
.313
|
.563
|
.877
|
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. IS = information-seeking; NRA = National Rifle
Association.
aN =
11.
**p < .01
(2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
Results for RQ2
RQ2
discusses how the crisis opportunity model can be tethered to meet the
requisite outcomes that include estimating how effective the model is as far as
the pragmatic functioning of the respective elements is placed. The events that
were considered in this case include the Columbine, Aurora, Tucson, and the
Virginia Tech shootings, might have been leveraged by people information-seeking
to make evaluations and appraisals of the Sandy Hook shooting. If previous events were used to evaluate the
Sandy Hook shooting, did it influence support for gun control? As part of determining if previous events
were leveraged to make sense of the crisis, a correlation was conducted between
Sandy Hook and information-seeking regarding previous shootings, using Google
Trends data. The previous shootings
might have served as cues and memory tags to process the Sandy Hook shooting
even before all the information was available.
Google Trends was queried on January 19, 2017, for the prior shooting
incidents. The data were examined to
determine if there existed a link amid information-seeking for Sandy Hook and
the three shooting events. Table 6
presents the Google Trends data returned from the query, with scaled data
points from 0-100, with 100 representing the highest level of information
seeking for the previous shooting terms.
Table 6
Google Trends
Search Intensity Data on Three Previous Mass Shootings
|
Week
|
Aurora
|
Virginia
Tech
|
Columbine
|
|
Dec. 2-8, 2012
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Dec. 9-15
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
|
Dec. 16-22
|
2
|
1
|
5
|
|
Dec. 23-29
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Dec. 30 – Jan. 5, 2013
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Jan. 6-12, 2013
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Jan. 13-19
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Jan. 20-26
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Jan. 27 – Feb. 2
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
|
Feb. 3-9
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Note.
Search intensity comparatively to Sandy Hook information-seeking. Data scaled 0–100, with 100 as the highest
intensity.
Previously in the chapter,
information-seeking was explored for gun
control, NRA, gun rights, and Sandy
Hook. To better appreciate the influence of information seeking, previous
shooting information-seeking was explored with the additional variables of coded
articles referencing prior shootings and support for gun control polling.
Table
7
Data Points for Articles
Mentioning Previous Shooting Incidents, by Week and News Outlet
|
Week
|
New York Times
|
USA Today
|
CNN
|
Fox
News |
Total
with Tucson
|
Total
without Tucson
|
|
Dec. 2-8, 2012
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Dec. 9-15
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
6
|
8
|
8
|
|
Dec. 16-22
|
0
|
6
|
8
|
6
|
20
|
20
|
|
Dec. 23-29
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
Dec. 30 – Jan. 5, 2013
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Jan. 6-12, 2013
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
19
|
7
|
|
Jan. 13-19
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
|
Jan. 20-26
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Jan. 27 – Feb. 2
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
6
|
0
|
|
Feb. 3-9
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Feb. 10-16
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
|
Feb. 17-23
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Feb. 24 – Mar. 2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Mar. 3-9
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
|
Mar. 10-16
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
|
Mar. 17-23
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Mar. 24-30
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
Mar. 31 – Apr. 6
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Apr. 7-13
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
4
|
9
|
2
|
|
Apr. 14-20
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
|
Apr. 21-27
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Apr. 28 – May 4
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Total
|
12
|
12
|
31
|
39
|
94
|
56
|
Table
8
Pearson Correlation
Matrix Between Searches for Previous Mass Shooting
|
Search
term
|
Aurora
|
|
Virginia
Tech
|
||
|
R
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
||
|
Virginia Tech
|
.68
|
.031
|
|
|
|
|
Columbine
|
.77**
|
.009
|
|
.96***
|
.000
|
Note.
N = 10.
**p < .01
(2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
Additional
correlations were conducted between the two groups of information-seeking, with
three significant findings (see Table 9).
Sandy Hook information-seeking significantly correlated (p <.001)
with Columbine and Virginia Tech shooting events and the composite variable,
including the three previous shootings combined into a single variable. The composite variable was also found to have
significant relationships with gun
control and the NRA, which
represent all the issues that relate to the gun debate. The gun debate is one
aspect that can be used to illustrate the effectiveness and operationalization
of the crisis opportunity model. Given the significant relationship between the
information-seeking of similar events, those previous events might have aided
in making judgments of the Sandy Hook crisis.
Table
9
Pearson Correlations between
Search Terms and Previous Shooting Searches
|
Search
term
|
Aurora
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
|
Columbine
|
Composite IS
|
|||||||||
|
R
|
p
|
R
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
r p
|
|||||||||
|
Sandy Hook
|
.70
|
.025
|
|
.99***
|
<.001
|
|
.96***
|
<.001
|
.95***
<.001
|
||||||
|
Gun rights
|
.20
|
.578
|
|
-.17
|
.645
|
|
-.11
|
.770
|
.10 .650
|
||||||
|
Gun control
|
.58
|
.079
|
|
.22
|
.541
|
|
.36
|
.310
|
.52* .013
|
||||||
|
National Rifle
Association (NRA)
|
.75
|
.012
|
|
.51
|
.132
|
|
.65
|
.041
|
.76*** <.001
|
||||||
Note.
N = 10.
*p < .05, **p
< .01 (2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
Earlier,
we explored the relationships between media attention, public information-seeking,
and support for gun control. The testing
was repeated using previous events’ information seeking. Two direct correlations with support for gun
control were found, including Virginia Tech and Columbine (see Table 10). No significant relationships were found
between Virginia Tech and Columbine information-seeking and media attention of
the media outlets in the study. Sandy
Hook information-seeking was previously found to be linked with The New York Times and the composite
media attention variable (see Table 5). Sandy
Hook information-seeking correlated with the previous shooting composite
variable strongly (see Table 9). The media
attention composite variable ties in with the previous shooting information-seeking
composite variable and with each of the three previous shootings (see Table 10).
Table
10
Pearson Correlations
Among Previous Shooting Info Seeking, Media, and Support Gun Control
|
Fox News
|
CNN
|
New
York Times
|
USA
Today
|
Composite Media
|
Support gun controlb
|
|
|
Composite
ISa
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson
r
|
.44*
|
.63**
|
.71**
|
.61**
|
.67**
|
-.55
|
|
p
|
.038
|
.002
|
<.001
|
.002
|
.001
|
.078
|
|
Aurora
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson
r
|
.62
|
.50
|
.76
|
.69
|
.73**
|
-.31
|
|
p
|
.055
|
.145
|
.011
|
.027
|
<.001
|
.504
|
|
Virginia
Tech
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson
r
|
.15
|
.34
|
.57
|
.57
|
.69**
|
-.89**
|
|
p
|
.680
|
.342
|
.089
|
.084
|
.006
|
.007
|
|
Columbine
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson
r
|
.30
|
.53
|
.71
|
.71
|
.81**
|
-.78*
|
|
p
|
.404
|
.119
|
.022
|
.021
|
<.001
|
.038
|
Note. N
= 20 except where indicated. aN
= 11. bN = 7. *p < .05 (2-tailed). **p < .01 (2-tailed).
The
analysis explored whether information-seeking surrounding previous shooting
events was linked to the functionality factions that denote the
operationalization of gun control. A strong, negative relationship was found
between Virginia Tech information-seeking and the dependent variable of support
for gun control, r =
-.89, p < .01, meaning that as information-seeking for Virginia Tech decreased, support for gun control increased. A strong, negative relationship was also found between Columbine information seeking and support for gun control, r = -.78, p < .05. As people reduced their information-seeking and fulfilled their need for orientation, some people supported additional gun control. Given the relationship of Columbine with support for gun control, this relationship was further explored as an exception to requiring a significance level greater than or equal to .01.
-.89, p < .01, meaning that as information-seeking for Virginia Tech decreased, support for gun control increased. A strong, negative relationship was also found between Columbine information seeking and support for gun control, r = -.78, p < .05. As people reduced their information-seeking and fulfilled their need for orientation, some people supported additional gun control. Given the relationship of Columbine with support for gun control, this relationship was further explored as an exception to requiring a significance level greater than or equal to .01.
Table
11
Regression Analysis of
Information-Seeking Terms Sandy Hook and Composite of Previous Events on
Dependent Variable of Support for Gun Control
|
Variable
|
Unstandardized
coefficients
|
|
Standardized
coefficients
|
t
|
p
|
|
|
|
|
|
B
|
SE
|
Beta
|
F
|
p
|
Adj
R2
|
||||
|
Overall Model
|
|
|
|
|
|
10.604
|
.006**
|
.658
|
|
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
-0.096
|
0.027
|
|
-1.940
|
-3.509
|
.008**
|
|
|
|
|
Composite IS
|
0.848
|
0.367
|
|
1.277
|
2.309
|
.05*
|
|
|
|
Note:
Linear Regression with aid for Gun control stances and attributes as the
working dependent variable.
The previous
events information-seeking and media attention relationship with support for
gun control were analyzed, with several significant findings. Next, correlations were conducted between
articles coded that included references of previous shooting events by CNN, Fox
News, and in aggregate of all four media outlets. USA
Today and The New York Times
yielded insufficient data points to be analyzed independently. Additionally, information-seeking for Sandy
Hook and support for gun control were included in the correlations. Previous shootings included four events:
Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, and Tucson.
Tucson was excluded in previous testing because of no Google Trends data
resulted from the query, precluding it from other testing.
Table 12
Pearson Correlations
Among Previous Shooting Information-Seeking, Media Outlet, and Support for Gun
Control
|
Variable
|
With
all four shootings (with Tucson)
|
|
Without
Tucson
|
||
|
Fox
News
|
CNN
|
Media
events aggregate
|
Media
events aggregate
|
||
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.63**
|
.46
|
.55**
|
|
.81***
|
|
p
|
.002
|
.032
|
.007
|
|
.000
|
|
Support for gun controlb
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
-.58
|
-.31
|
-.10
|
|
-.41
|
|
p
|
.059
|
.349
|
.774
|
|
.210
|
|
Aurora IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.61
|
.53
|
.74
|
|
.86**
|
|
p
|
.063
|
.113
|
.014
|
|
.002
|
|
Virginia Tech IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.89***
|
.53
|
.54
|
|
.80**
|
|
p
|
.000
|
.115
|
.108
|
|
.006
|
|
Columbine IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.86**
|
.63
|
.64
|
|
.86**
|
|
p
|
.002
|
.050
|
.049
|
|
.002
|
|
Composite IS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.59**
|
.57**
|
.68**
|
|
.89**
|
|
p
|
.004
|
.006
|
<.001
|
|
<.001
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. IS = information-seeking.
bN =
11.
**p < .01
(2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
Given the significant relationships
between media coverage and information-seeking terms, Columbine, Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook, and the composite variable, regressions were conducted to determine
the effects on support for gun control. The
regressions were not significant (p > .05).
The research sought to determine if
the public’s information-seeking (Independent Variable 1) associates with the
transfer of issue attributes from the media (Independent Variable 2) to the
public (the dependent variable). Nine
issue attributes were initially coded: weapon, ammunition and magazine bans,
background checks, mental health, waiting periods, gun show loopholes, online
gun sales, and Second Amendment.
Consistent polling resulted in the ability to test only five of the gun
debate issues: assault defense mechanisms as well as the high-capacity magazine
bans, mental health, background checks, and the Second Amendment. Excluded issues of waiting periods, gun show
loopholes, ammunition bans, and online gun sales each had two or fewer polling
data points for the period covered in this study. Of the issues explored, specific issue
attributes were further limited due to data limitations, such as lack of coded
or polling data. The included issue
attributes coding was tested for inter-coder reliability using Krippendorff’s
Alpha with the following results: for assault weapon ban .926; against assault
weapon ban .97; for the second amendment .937; for high volume magazine ban
.985; for intermediary checks .985; for mental adjustments and checks.
Additional significant correlations
were found between the independent variables, including articles coded in
support of background checks and information-seeking for gun rights, r = .56, p < .01; gun control, r
= .75, p < .001; and NRA, r = .74, p < .001 (see Table 13).
The coded articles and the polling for background checks did not return
any significant relationships with previous event information-seeking.
Table 13
Pearson
Correlations Among Background Check Data
|
Data
|
Background
poll |
|
Background
checks aggregate
|
|
Against
background checks
|
|
For
background checks
|
||||
|
R
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
||||
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
.63a
|
.181
|
|
.13
|
.554
|
|
-.16
|
.489
|
|
.26
|
.241
|
|
Gun rights IS
|
-.08a
|
.882
|
|
.44
|
.040
|
|
-.11
|
.620
|
|
.56**
|
.007
|
|
Gun control IS
|
.41a
|
.422
|
|
.64**
|
.001
|
|
.05
|
.814
|
|
.75***
|
.000
|
|
NRA IS
|
.58a
|
.231
|
|
.55**
|
.008
|
|
-.21
|
.348
|
|
.74***
|
.000
|
|
Background polla
|
|
|
|
.21
|
.685
|
|
|
|
|
.21
|
.685
|
|
Aurorab
|
.12
|
.884
|
|
.56
|
.095
|
|
-.30
|
.397
|
|
.60
|
.065
|
|
Virginia Techb
|
.66
|
.336
|
|
.15
|
.688
|
|
-.17
|
.645
|
|
.17
|
.638
|
|
Columbineb
|
.66
|
.336
|
|
.29
|
.489
|
|
-.32
|
.368
|
|
.30
|
.407
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. IS = information-seeking; NRA = National Rifle
Association.
aN
= 6. bN = 10.
**p < .01
(2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
Correlations
between issue attributes were also explored with one significant finding. Background checks articles in aggregate
correlated significantly with articles in support of mental health background
checks, r =
.72, p < .001. Articles in support of background checks
correlated with articles in support for a high-capacity magazine ban, r = .86, p < .001; and articles in support for a ban on assault weapons, r = .75, p < .001. Assault weapons
are explored next.
Table 14
Pearson
Correlations among Assault Weapon Ban Data
|
Data
|
Assault
weapon ban poll
|
|
Assault
weapon ban aggregate
|
|
For
assault weapon ban
|
|
Against
assault weapon ban
|
||||
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
P
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
||||
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
-.10a
|
.829
|
|
.32
|
.144
|
|
.35
|
.106
|
|
.13
|
.574
|
|
Gun rights IS
|
.80*a
|
.029
|
|
.46
|
.031
|
|
.59**
|
.004
|
|
.19
|
.392
|
|
Gun control IS
|
.48a
|
.273
|
|
.71***
|
.000
|
|
.76***
|
.000
|
|
.45
|
.036
|
|
NRA IS
|
.22a
|
.641
|
|
.79***
|
.000
|
|
.82***
|
.000
|
|
.49
|
.022
|
|
Assault weapon ban poll
|
|
|
|
.34a
|
.458
|
|
.48a
|
.279
|
|
-.05a
|
.910
|
|
Aurora
|
|
|
|
.60b
|
.069
|
|
.54b
|
.136
|
|
.20b
|
.579
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
-.33c
|
.667
|
|
.14b
|
.711
|
|
.06b
|
.871
|
|
-.05b
|
.897
|
|
Columbine
|
-.23c
|
.775
|
|
.36b
|
.309
|
|
.23b
|
.554
|
|
.15b
|
.676
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. aN
= 7. bN = 10. cN = 4.
IS
= information seeking; NRA = National Rifle Association.
*p<.05, **p < .01 (2-tailed). ***p < .001 (2-tailed).
Assault weapon ban coded articles in
aggregate, in support of, and against had significant correlations with
numerous other issues’ attributes not previously reported. The assault weapon issue in aggregate
correlated significantly with the Second Amendment in aggregate, r = .69, p <.001; articles in support for the Second Amendment, r = .67, p = .001; and articles on high-capacity magazines in aggregate, r = .77, p < .001. Articles coded
in support of the assault weapon ban correlated with the Second Amendment articles
in aggregate, r = .55, p < .01; articles on high-capacity
magazines in aggregate r = .75, p < .001; and articles support for
high-capacity magazines, r = .84, p < .001. Articles coded against the ban also
correlated significantly with articles in support for the Second Amendment, r = .64, p = .001; and articles in support of high-capacity magazines in
aggregate, r = .60, p < .01.
Table 15
Pearson
Correlations among Data Regarding High-Capacity Magazines
|
Data
|
High-capacity
magazine ban poll
|
|
High-capacity
magazine aggregate
|
|
For
high-capacity magazine ban
|
|
Against
high-capacity magazine ban
|
||||
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
P
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
||||
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
-.49a
|
.511
|
|
.25
|
.267
|
|
.65*e
|
.011
|
|
.05
|
.820
|
|
Gun rights ISi
|
-
|
-
|
|
.43
|
.049
|
|
.69**e
|
.007
|
|
-.14
|
.529
|
|
Gun control IS
|
-.16a
|
.839
|
|
.65**
|
.001
|
|
.89***e
|
.000
|
|
-.13
|
.571
|
|
NRA IS
|
-.38a
|
.622
|
|
.70***
|
.000
|
|
.86***e
|
.000
|
|
.12
|
.603
|
|
Aurora
|
-.50f
|
.667
|
|
.63g
|
.051
|
|
.75h
|
.050
|
|
.52g
|
.125
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
-.87f
|
.333
|
|
.14g
|
.705
|
|
.46h
|
.294
|
|
.55g
|
.102
|
|
Columbine
|
-.87f
|
.333
|
|
.29g
|
.416
|
|
.52h
|
.237
|
|
.55g
|
.100
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. IS = information-seeking; NRA = National Rifle
Association.
aN =
4. dN = 21. eN = 14. fN = 3. gN =
10. hN = 7.
iGun
Rights IS and polling data was insufficient for testing.
**p < .01
(2-tailed). ***p < .001
(2-tailed).
The
articles coded for the high-capacity magazine issue attribute in aggregate and
in support of the ban had significant correlations with numerous other issue
attributes not previously reported. The
issue attribute of high-capacity magazines articles correlated significantly
with the Second Amendment articles in aggregate, r = .61, p < .01;
support for the Second Amendment articles, r
= .59, p < .01; and support
for mental health background checks articles, r = .58, p <
.005. Articles in support for the
high-capacity magazine ban correlated significantly with support for mental
health background checks articles, r
= .66, p < .01.
Table 16
Pearson
Correlations Among Data Regarding the Second Amendment
|
Data
|
Second
Amendment poll
|
|
Second
Amendment aggregate
|
|
For
Second Amendment
|
|
Against
Second Amendment
|
||||
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
P
|
r
|
p
|
r
|
p
|
||||
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
-.81a
|
.399
|
|
.11b
|
.630
|
|
.11b
|
.646
|
|
.05b
|
.815
|
|
Gun rights IS
|
|
|
|
.36
|
.096
|
|
.39
|
.073
|
|
-.09
|
.688
|
|
Gun control IS
|
-.97a
|
.164
|
|
.50
|
.018
|
|
.51
|
.016
|
|
.07
|
.745
|
|
NRA IS
|
-.88a
|
.315
|
|
.57**
|
.005
|
|
.57**
|
.005
|
|
.13
|
.581
|
|
Aurora
|
|
|
|
.56c
|
.090
|
|
.53c
|
.119
|
|
.30c
|
.397
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
|
|
|
-.02c
|
.959
|
|
.01c
|
.986
|
|
-.15c
|
.671
|
|
Columbine
|
|
|
|
.14c
|
.703
|
|
.15c
|
.689
|
|
-.03c
|
.946
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. IS = information-seeking; NRA = National Rifle
Association.
aN =
3. bN = 21. cN = 10.
**p < .01
(2-tailed).
Mental Health. Only one significant correlation was
found between the independent variable of NRA information-seeking and the
dependent variable of mental health checks polling, p < .05, r = .998 (see
Table 17). While the significance level
is below the p < .01 threshold, it
is one of the limited relationships between information-seeking and issue
attribute polling that is discussed further in Chapter 5. There was not a significant relationship
between polling and articles in support of mental health checks; therefore, a
multiple regression was not conducted. Gun
control, r = .57, p < .01, information-seeking had
significant relationships with articles coded in support of mental health
checks.
Table 17
Pearson
Correlations among Data Regarding Mental Health Checks
|
Data
|
Mental
health poll
|
|
For
mental health checks
|
||
|
ra
|
P
|
R
|
p
|
||
|
Sandy Hook IS
|
.92
|
.249
|
|
.47b
|
.034
|
|
Gun rights IS
|
|
|
|
.22
|
.323
|
|
Gun control IS
|
.60
|
.593
|
|
.57**
|
.006
|
|
NRA IS
|
.998*
|
.041
|
|
.74***
|
.000
|
|
Aurora
|
.87
|
.333
|
|
.63c
|
.049
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
.87
|
.333
|
|
.53c
|
.118
|
|
Columbine
|
.87
|
.333
|
|
.58c
|
.080
|
Note. N
= 22 except where indicated. IS = information-seeking; NRA =
National Rifle Association.
National Rifle Association.
aN =
3. bN = 21. cN = 10.
*p < .05
(2-tailed). **p < .01 (2-tailed).
***p < .001 (2-tailed).
The analysis also explored
relationships between mental health polling, articles coded on the issue
attribute of mental health, and previous shootings. From the correlations, no additional significant
relationship emerged when expanded to include previous shootings (see Table 17). Mental health issue attribute correlations
with other issue attributes were covered in the previous attributes.
Throughout
analysis of the data addressing RQ3, only two issue attributes’ polling had a
significant relationship with one of the independent variables and both were an
exception to the p < .01 threshold: support for mental health background
checks polling and NRA information
seeking (see Table 17), and the support for assault weapon ban poll and gun rights information seeking (see
Table 14). The assault weapon and mental
health checks polling both also significantly correlated with the articles
coded for that issue attribute. These
relationships could indicate second level agenda setting. As the issue attributes were examined
together more closely, a pattern emerged of articles coded in support of issue
attributes (for assault weapon ban, for high
capacity magazine ban, for background checks, for 2nd Amendment, and
for mental health checks) significantly correlated with NRA information-seeking. The NRA was the only information-seeking term
that was not a previous shooting event to correlate with Sandy Hook
information-seeking, which had significant relationship with support for gun
control. As a result, the four issue
attributes aligned with the themes in support for more gun control were
combined into a composite variable with a Cronbach’s Alpha .855. The composite variable included for assault weapon ban, for high capacity
magazine ban, for background checks, and for mental health checks. The issue attribute for Second Amendment was excluded since it was not an additional
gun control being sought.
Table
18
Pearson
Correlations among Composite Media Issue Attribute Data in Support of Gun
Control
|
Variable
|
Sandy
Hook IS
|
VT
IS
|
Columbine
IS
|
Previous
IS Composite
|
Composite
Media Attention
|
Support
for Gun Control
|
|
Composite Media Issue
Attribute
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pearson r
|
.80***
|
.69**
|
.81***
|
.83***
|
.51*
|
-.31
|
|
P
|
.001
|
.006
|
<.001
|
<.001
|
.015
|
.502
|
Discussion
School
shootings have been central in the gun debate over the past two decades, with
crises refocusing attention to issues surrounding this controversial topic. A crisis introduces uncertainty that drives
information-seeking behaviors. People
are more susceptible and vulnerable following a crisis, as it forces people to
seek information, a story to cognitively and emotionally process what happened. A crisis is important as it is a focusing
event that brings attention to issues that can drive social and political
change (Birkland, 1968; Sellnow & Seeger, 2013). However, a holistic examination of how and
why a crisis can be used to achieve change is necessary. This study built upon an extensive body of
knowledge spanning multiple disciplines and theories reviewed in Chapter 2. It considered uncertainty, crisis
communication, and media effects theories.
The Sandy Hook school shooting provided an opportunity to understand how
a crisis can be used to drive change.
The study was designed to fill current gaps of knowledge to understand
how crises are leveraged to bring about change and has implications for
numerous theories.
The literature review explored
uncertainty and how it influences people’s information-seeking, requiring the
least cognitive effort that alleviates the stress associated with uncertainty
(Berger, 1997; Knobloch & McAninch, 2014).
Also, media effects theories were discussed, including agenda setting
and framing. These theories provided the
framework of how and what information from the media fulfilled people’s
information-seeking requirements that may influence which issues and issue
attributes are important to people. In Chapter
3, the study was carefully designed to understand people’s information-seeking
behaviors and the media coverage of the Sandy Hook crisis to understand the
influence the media and issue advocates can have on policy support following a
crisis. Chapter 4 presented the findings
of the three research questions, including various types of data such as Google
Trends, polling data, and media coverage.
“Priming occurs when news content
suggests to new audiences that they ought to use specific issues as benchmarks
for evaluating the performance of leaders and governments. The success of
priming is dependent upon how easily an issue or association comes to mind to
evaluate like or related issues. The ease of issues coming to mind is why
priming is considered an accessibility model as is agenda setting. Framing, an applicability model, may assist
in drawing associations and linkages to previous issues.
A focusing event such as a crisis can
refocus attention to an issue, providing an opportunity to introduce or amplify
frames by the media, issue advocates, or other social structures. A crisis
typically provides this opportunity because the event needs interpretation, and
framing has an important role in developing associations. Research considered a
framing effect as the organization, selection of content, and thematic
structure rendering particular thoughts that activate a knowledge structure
applicable to the desired schema for evaluations. Under this model, it is difficult to
distinguish framing effects from accessibility counterparts within agenda
setting. As a result of these
challenges, Cacciatore provided a new perspective, the preference-based effects
models. Priming is the outcome of the
message and whether the audiences accepts the connection between two or more
concepts. This
is achieved by people receiving information from their social networks or from
a fragmented news environment representing a person’s predisposition and
cognitive schemas. Within the larger agenda setting
construct, story selection increases the public’s perception of issue salience
while framing is a particular way the issue is presented. Framing is considered
an extension of agenda setting when selecting and focusing on a restricted
number of thematically related attributes when discussing an object within the
media agenda to increase the salience of issue attributes.
Framing
is a story structured and organized that tells us how to understand an issue,
events, and information. It is how we think about an issue though interpretive
schemas and descriptions of an issue. Framing policy
goals or social change within the story connects the crisis with the desired
goal or solution. The issue advocate’s goal within a social structure and the
crisis in which people are seeking information must be related and connectable
even though an actual connection is not necessary. Cues and mental tags established in agenda
setting and priming allow and increase the opportunity that the framing efforts
will meet the demands for coherence by activating previous information that
guides how the new information is processed.
Emotional responses can shift over
time when new information is available, which allows people to reframe an issue
as new information joins existing knowledge, providing a more complete
understanding.
In
1968, Birkland considered a crisis as a way to bring attention to issues and to
set the larger public policy agenda.
Individuals select frames to interpret an issue that may influence them
to support movements, reach a consensus, and lead to mobilization for action
and social change. Frames tell people what issues are important (Littlejohn
& Foss, 2011). The
opportunity is the result of an uncertain population that is susceptible to
framing since fewer channels of information are available or were at that
time. The new information can be framed
within the agenda to influence the population to interpret the events through a
specific lens. Uncertainty can be
manipulated in a desired direction through the information provided to the
population in order to influence them. As long as the frame allows people to
develop meaning for an event, comes from a credible source, and holds together
coherently, the crisis may be framed in a way that may serve a policy
objective. Framing a crisis must both
meet the needs of and be relevant to the public. A story defines the important
issues and highlights the need for change.
The crisis provides the opportunity to define or redefine an issue
during a time the population is vulnerable and susceptible to information. This
study explores the relationships between the Sandy Hook mass shooting, its
media coverage, related Google searches, public opinion, and policy
actions. Additionally, it seeks to
identify a time period in which people nationally had a need for orientation
and actively sought information following the Sandy Hook school shooting. This and the literature reviewed lead to
three research questions. This study
seeks to extend our understanding of agenda setting following the crisis of the
Newtown, Connecticut, school shooting on December 14, 2012. Gun control has been an agenda of the
Democrat Party for more than 20 years. A
crisis presents a unique opportunity to achieve policy actions, given the
population’s uncertainty and information-seeking tendencies.
In
this final chapter, we explore the findings from Chapter 4 of this study and
the implications for communication scholars and our understanding of
uncertainty, media effects, and crisis communication theories. This was achieved by exploring relationships
between the Sandy Hook mass shooting, media attention, media coverage of related
issue, public opinion, and the public’s information-seeking following the
crisis. This chapter concludes with
discussing the limitations of this study and considerations for future
research.
Numerous significant relationships
were found between information-seeking terms.
While looking at only the scaled numbers, the complete scope of the
number of people information-seeking can be lost.
It is advisable to look out for the stances that characterize the crisis
opportunity model (Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). The span of the information-seeking is an important
consideration, as the scaled number represents information search intensity of
a term or incident over the lifetime of Google Trends or since the event
occurrence, though without the raw data of actual unique searches, the full
scope of the meaning is limited. Gun
rights, gun control, and NRA correlated with each other though were not
statistically related to eventual support for gun control. Information-seeking of shooting events
correlated with each other and corresponded with increased support for gun
control. Only information-seeking of the NRA correlated significantly for both
sets of information-seeking terms, potentially representing the role the NRA
plays as an issue advocate, a social structure people rely on to understand the
implications of a crisis.
While gaining a better appreciation
of information-seeking, only three of the seven individual information-seeking
terms following the Sandy Hook crisis have a significant relationship with
support for gun control, with the composite variable making a fourth; Sandy
Hook (see Table 5), composite previous shooting information seeking variable
(see Table 11), Virginia Tech and Columbine (see Table 10). As we discuss further how crises are
leveraged for policy, political, and social change, it is evident that prior
events play a role in influencing support for change. In part, this can be explained by priming, a
component of agenda setting. Camaj’s
(2014) findings that the requirement for orientation is a key factor that is
often required in the case of agenda setting. This is further supported and
entrenched by these findings, as information-seeking behaviors can influence
policy support. This in turn supports
the theory that people are more susceptible to change following a crisis
because it spurs the need for orientation to fill the information void.
After focusing on the population
following a crisis, another important element in the equation is the media that
aid the population in understanding and interpreting the events around
them. In exploring the media’s role in
driving change as a result of a crisis, media effects theories aid in exploring
the relationship. The population has a
need for orientation, seeking information about the crisis and previous
crises. Next, we discuss the role the
media played and what people found from four major news outlets as they sought
information.
According to Eagly and Chaiken
(1993), media effects in this study mostly considered the agenda setting theory
and models of information processing. Media generated symbols of a focus event,
in this case previous shootings, may serve as evidence for gun control
advocates for a dramatized need for change (Birkland, 1998). Scheufele (2000) considered priming to
influence future agenda setting efforts by influencing how people make
evaluations. Several findings on priming
have already been reported in this chapter, specifically how prior events are
used to judge and evaluate future information in addition to spurring
information-seeking of those prior events. The initial lack of coverage of
Tucson also supports the role of need for orientation as a contingent factor. The Tucson coverage began after people no
longer had a need for orientation, a month after the shooting. Both Virginia Tech and Columbine were covered
during the height of information-seeking, with media coverage focused on those
two events during the same period. In
examining Tucson specifically, the lack of relationship with linking stances
that are associated with the issue of gun control was potentially the result of
media coverage not occurring until after the need for orientation had passed,
as observed in the information-seeking data.
The media covered Tucson as people were tuning out. Sandy Hook was on the minds of the American
people during this time with numerous significant relationships between
information-seeking, and media coverage.
Caccitore (2016) found that media
attention enables the information to be more available and accessible for
decision making. Of the four event-related information-seeking terms that had a
significant relationship with support for gun control, all had significant
relationships also with the composite media coverage, the composite media
coverage of prior shootings, and the composite media gun control issue
attributes variables (see Table 18). The
crisis information seeking has the more significant relationship with gun
control than other information-seeking terms and all other variables in this
study. This study included examining media
attention of the crisis, and the articles were then coded to understand the
related issue attributes. According to Vu &
McCombs (2014), it is important to point
out that the crisis opportunity model serves to show the strategies that can be
inculcated to create a stance where crises and other manifesting concerns are
resolved as soon as they happen.
Framing provides people a schema with
which to interpret and classify information encountered in life and to provide meanings
of events (Goffman, 1974). In this study, issues represent the
themes in the ongoing gun debate’s competing narratives, where each side of the
debate attempts to interpret meaning of recent events. Each side of those issues are issue
attributes that advocates are attempting to advance as part of their
narrative. Gun control and the NRA
represent the two broader, competing narratives in the gun debate. In this study, issue attributes for background checks, for assault weapon
ban, for high capacity magazine ban, and
for mental health background checks correlated with both information-seeking
terms NRA and gun control. The issue
attribute for the Second Amendment correlated
only with the NRA information-seeking
activity.
The term NRA was found to have a significant relationship to Sandy Hook and
with each of the five-issue attribute coded articles mentioned above. As a result of the linkage, a composite
variable was created with the four issue attributes in support of additional
gun control. The composite issue
attributes variable significantly correlated with the Sandy Hook, Virginia
Tech, Columbine, and the previous shooting composite variable for information-seeking
(see Table 18). While linkages were
found between issue attributes and information-seeking, there was no direct
relationship between issue attributes and support for gun control. The timing of information-seeking surrounding
related prior shootings correlated with media articles on the prior shootings
(see Table 12), potentially demonstrating the activation of memory tags by the
media of primed events, both peaking within the first two weeks of the crisis.
There was one issue attribute, for mental health checks, with a
significant relationship between issue attribute polling and articles coded in
support of that attribute, possibly reflecting second level agenda setting. Mental health background checks were an area
that both NRA and gun control advocates supported during the period of this
study, which may be why this issue attribute may have achieved second level agenda
setting. No legislation of mental health
background checks passed during the period covered in this study.
Conclusion
In understanding what people think
about, we looked toward the issue attributes polling and where people stand
relative to the articles that were published by the four media outlets. Issue attributes were examined to see the
influence that may exist with support for gun control more broadly. When looking
at those variables more closely, a pattern emerged. Each of those variables had significant
relationships with coded articles of previous events and the composite variables
of media attention, media issue attributes for gun control, and the previous
shooting information-seeking. The
relationships show the convergence of information-seeking and media coverage, a
necessary condition to achieve change.
When people looked to the media, they found numerous issues covered with
most issue attributes for additional gun control.
It is important to maintain perspective on the change
that took place, which were minor changes in the overall support for gun control.
What made it more significant was exceeding the 50% threshold - a major
narrative win. The increase in support
of gun control would not likely have occurred without the Sandy Hook school
shooting crisis to refocus the attention of the population and require people
to reevaluate their positions. Crises
have been long believed to be able to influence change, and this study looked
at the Sandy Hook school shooting to understand it. Specific to this study, the
opportunities for change were realized with increased support for gun control
and mental health background checks though gun control advocates were unable to
achieve legislative success at the federal level. The model reflects the relationships found in
this study. As people were seeking
information about the crisis and related crises to make sense of the world, the
media was providing information to meet their needs. The information people encountered were
references to previous shootings and issue attributes that mostly supported
more gun control. As people concluded
their information-seeking, some people shifted to support gun control.
References
Babrow, A. (2001). Uncertainty,
value, communication, and problematic integration. Journal of Communication,
51, 553-573. doi:0.1111/j.1460-2466.2001.tb02896.x
Berger, C., & Bradac, J. (1982). Language
and social knowledge: Uncertainty in interpersonal relationships. London:
Edward Arnold.
Birkland, T. (1998). Focusing event,
mobilization, and agenda-setting. Journal of Public Policy, 18(1),
53-74.
Brashers, D. E., & Hogan, T. P.
(2013). The appraisal and management of uncertainty: Implications for
information-retrieval systems. Information Processing and Management(49),
1241-1249.
Cacciatore, M., Scheufele, D., &
Iyengar, S. (2016). The end of framing as we know it . . . and the future of
media effects. Mass Communication and Society, 19, 7-23.
doi:10.1080/15205436.2015.1068811
Camaj, L. (2014). Need for
orientation, selective exposure, and attribute agenda-setting effects. Mass
Communication and Society, 17, 689-712. doi:10.1080/15205436.2013.835424
Chernov, G., Valenzuela, S., &
McCombs, M. (2011). An experimental comparison of the two perspectives on the
concept of need for orientation in agenda-setting effects. Journalism and Mass
Communication Quarterly, 88, 142-155.
Coombs, W. T. (2007). Attribution
Theory as a guide for post-crisis communication research. Public Relations
Review, 33, 135-139.
Eagly, A., & Chaiken, S. (1993). The
psychology of attitudes. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace.
Goffman, E. (1974). Frame
analysis: An essay on the organization of experience. Cambridge: Harvard
University Press.
Hale, J., Dulek, R., & Hale, D.
(2005, April). Crisis response communication challenges. Journal of Business
Communication, 42(2), 112-134. doi:10.1177/0021943605274751
Knobloch, L., & McAninch, K.
(2014). Uncertainty management. In P. Schultz, & P. Cobley, Handbooks of
Communication Science: Vol. 6. Interpersonal Communication (pp. 297-319).
Berlin: De Gruyter Mouton.
Littlejohn,
S., & Foss, K. (2011). Theories of Human Communication (10th ed).
Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press, INC.
Matthes, J. (2008). Need for
orientation as a predictor of agenda-setting effects: Causal evidence from a
two-wave panel study. International Journal of Public Opinion Reseach, 20,
440-453.
Mutz, D., & Martin, P. (2001).
Facilitating communication across lines of political differences. American
Political Science Review, 95, 97-114.
Perry, R. (2007). What is a crisis? Management
Communication Quarterly, 206-232.
. Communication Research, 24,
481-506. doi:10.1177/009365097024005002
Scheufele, D. (2000). Agenda-setting,
priming, and framing revisited: Another look at cognitive effects of political
communication. Mass Communication and Society, 3, 297-316.
Seeger, M., Sellnow, T., & Ulmer,
R. (2003). Communication and organizational crisis. Westport, CT:
Praeger.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D.
(1973). Availability-Heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive
Psychology, 5, 207-232.
Uecker, J. (2011). Religious and spiritual
responses to 9/11. Austin: National Institutes of Health.
Ulmer, R., Sellnow, T., & Seeger,
M. (2015). Effective crisis communication: Moving from crisis to opportunity.
Washington, DC: Sage.
Vu, H. T., Guo, L., & McCombs, M.
(2014). Exploring "the world outside and the pictures in our heads":
A network agenda-setting study. Journalism & Mass Communication
Quarterly, 91(4), 669-686. doi:10.1177/1077699014550090
Weaver, D. (1977). Political issues
and voter need for orientation. In D. Shaw, & M. McCombs, The emergence
of American political issues: The agenda-setting function of the press.
(pp. 107-119). St Paul. MN: West.
Weaver, D., Wojdynski, B. M., &
Shaw, D. (2010). Vertical and or versus? Horizontal communities: Need for
orientation, media use and agenda melding. World Association for Public
Opinion Research Annual Conference, (pp. 1-20). Chicago.
doi:10.13140/RG.2.1.3481.4881
Yin, R. K. (2009). Case study research:
Design and research methods (4th ed., Vol. 5). Washington DC: Sage.
No comments:
Post a Comment